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Advanced Risk Management in VC Investments Module 9

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Risk Management

R&D as a % of GDP

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U.S. R&D Funding by Source

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U.S. R&D by Source and Performance

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R&D Definition from the NSF

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R&D Finance

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Pharmaceutical R&D

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Pharmaceutical R&D: Data

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Licensing

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Example of Strategic Alliance

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Trees and Tools

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How does this all relate to VC?

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Net Present Value

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NPV

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Downsides

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Monte Carlo

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What happens when we have continuous ... ?

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Uniform Distribution

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Normal Distribution

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Poisson Distribution

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Probability

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Example 1

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Example 2

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Example 3

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Monte Carlo Simulation

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Real Options

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Decision Tree vs Event Tree

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So what is the power of Real Options?

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Commuting

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Types of Real Options

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Example: Fuelco Project A

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Example: Fuelco Project B

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Example: Fuelco Project C

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Game Theory

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Example: Prisoner’s Dilemma

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Prisoner’a Dilemma, Extensive Form

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Nash Equilibrium

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Example, Advertising Arms Race

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Advertising Game, Extensive Form

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